The past few weeks would have been really disturbing for anyone around the world and especially Africans who have some sense of empathy in them. Since April 14, when it is alleged that a band of heavily armed Islamist militants raided the Government Girls Secondary School in Borno state, northern Nigeria, and ultimately fled with an estimated 300 captives all of whom are young women and girls who the militants’ leader has threatened to sell into slavery or marriage, there has been no shortage of media coverage and social media hype about finding the girls. Today, the BBC reported that hopes of finding the girls is fading fast. But was this unexpected?
There is a saying that once bitten twice shy hence, I was not about to make the mistake that I made in supporting the Kony2012 campaign before realising what the real agenda was. I wrote a post then titled The African Dilemma: Kony 2012 – Liberation or Recolonisation? in which I questioned the whole logic of the campaign and regretted that history was repeating itself and Africa was experiencing a second colonisation. I have therefore been very slow in joining the clamour for the Chibok girls to be found. This does not in any way mean that I did not hope they should be found. Rather, I have been hoping to find answers to some questions but, the more I try, the more questions there are to answer.
How realistic are the Evaluations and Pronostics?
Anyone familiar with the Kony2012 saga will inevitably ask this question. The objectives seem to be the same, getting foreign troops into an African country because the quest is one that the country cannot handle and one that failure to accept foreign help will amount to barbarism on the part of the government.
Over the past few weeks, the story of the abducted girls and Nigeria’s Boko Haram militant group has become a roaring inferno with the press and come to dominate world news with one endgame in sight – Nigeria and its neighbours should allow unfettered access to Western troops to help find the girls.
Whether or not girls are missing in Chibok is not a question I can answer, despite some skepticism creeping into my mind when I started coming across contentious views. However, I cannot ignore some more questions.
What Happened to Kony2012?
Those who followed the media hype of Invisible Children’s Kony2012 will remember that they claimed Joseph Kony will be caught before 2012 ran out. We are in 2014 and despite the fact that Obama sent hundreds of specialist troops into Uganda and the Central African region, there is nothing to show for it. Oh wait! I almost forgot! Joseph Kony has not been caught yet, but the Central African Republic and South Sudan have joined the Democratic Republic of Congo as the latest additions of conflict ridden African states.
The question one cannot fail asking at this stage is: Where are the specialist troops Obama sent? Why did they not help in stopping the carnage that took place in the CAR? why are they not able to help South Sudan avoid a famine catastrophe? How come the countries they entered in the quest to catch Kony all suddenly erupted into conflict? What role are these specialist troops actually playing in the outbreak of conflict in these countries?
These questions will appear really naive when it is recalled that the USA seems to be able to offer nothing but conflict to any country they enter. Rewind back to the immediate post 9/11. The quest to catch Bin Laden and free Americans from the fear of Al Qaeda resulted in the complete collapse of Iraq, Afghanistan and has left Pakistan struggling to hold itself together. The quest to catch Al Qaeda members and other terrorist across the globe has left the fear of drones hanging over every area that has been identified as a stronghold (Yemenis can testify to this fact). It will therefore be out of character for the US to engage in a search and rescue mission without leaving a trail of horrifying conflict. Which brings me to another question.
Who Arms these Rebels and Terrorists?
I cannot believe I am asking this question. It may not be immediately obvious who arms Al Qaeda (at least not the ones in Syria) or who currently arms the Taliban, but when it comes to Boko Haram, it is obvious to any discerning mind. Boko Haram began as a local group and with the quick execution of their leader in 2009 during the reign of late Nigerian President Yar’ Adua, the sponsors of the sect could not be uncovered. The group however began to dwindle until 2011 when Libya collapsed and the arms that the US had indiscriminately handed to rebels in Libya conveniently found their way into Nigeria and saw the rebirth of the current Boko Haram. Questions abound as to weather the weapons simply changed hands or the same people who used them in Libya simply changed locations. Obviously, this is a difficult question to answer, I will look at the score of the two campaigns against terrorist groups championed through the use of social media and mass promotion.
It should be obvious at this stage where I am driving this analysis. In 2012, there was a massive social media campaign claiming to be aimed at catching Joseph Kony. Kony has not been caught, but all the countries in which he has been associated with are all experiencing armed conflict. The only success was that registered by the Obama administration which got troops into these countries, without going through the drudgery of explaining to anyone why that was necessary. That makes it One for #Kony2012 and the Obama administration, and Zero for African security.
With the current state of affairs regarding #Bringbackourgirls, the campaign has already scored one and with US troops already in Nigeria, that is also one for the Obama administration – the question of whether Nigeria and her neighbours will score anything in this game remains a matter of future conjecture. The recipe for failure has already been prepared when the The presidents of Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Benin were invited to a meeting, with representatives from France, the UK, the US and the European Union. The operating word here is ‘invited’ because the affected countries did not choose to meet – but were invited to discuss an issue the was of grave importance to them and the meeting did not take place in any of the countries affected, but in Paris of all places.
Not to stretch this too far, I will end by asking anyone who thinks that the same players who are yet to win in a dangerous game that has engulfed Ukraine in conflict, will all of a sudden provide a lasting solution to a problem in Africa, should have their thought processes examined.
In one of my posts, I asked and I ask again: AFRICA: QUO VADIS?